As the 2026 World Cup kicks off, excitement around Mexico’s role in the tournament has surged, especially after the national team exceeded expectations in the 13 matches hosted across the country. This renewed passion has sparked questions about when Mexico might host the World Cup again—and recent analysis suggests it could be as soon as 2038.

Erasmo Zarazúa, an expert in International Relations and contributor to Prensa Ibero, recently shared a projection grounded in geopolitical economics and historical patterns. His outlook doesn’t envision Mexico hosting the tournament alone but rather as part of a North American joint bid, with the United States as the primary host and Mexico taking on a larger share of matches than in 2026. Notably, Canada would not be part of this future arrangement.

This scenario aligns with FIFA’s rotation system, which prevents countries or confederations from hosting the World Cup if they or their confederation hosted either of the two previous editions. Since Concacaf (the North, Central American and Caribbean Football Confederation) hosted in 2026, it’s excluded from 2030 and 2034, but eligible again in 2038.

Looking at the global landscape:
– The 2030 World Cup will be hosted by Spain, Portugal, and Morocco, ruling out UEFA (Europe) and CAF (Africa) for 2038.
– South America’s Conmebol is also out, as it will host matches in Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay in 2030.
– Asia’s AFC is excluded for 2038 because Saudi Arabia will host in 2034.
– That leaves Concacaf and Oceania’s OFC as potential candidates. Given OFC’s composition of mostly small island nations—and Australia’s move to AFC in 2006—Concacaf emerges as the natural contender.

Zarazúa highlights several factors that could tip the scales in Mexico’s favor for 2038:

– **Expansion to 64 Teams:** While 2026 marks the first 48-team World Cup, future tournaments might expand to 64 teams and 128 matches. This scale demands extensive infrastructure, favoring regions like North America with established stadiums and facilities.
– **No AFC Reorganization:** There’s ongoing discussion about splitting the Asian confederation into Middle East and Asia-Pacific zones. If this happens, countries like China, India, or Australia could become hosts, complicating Mexico’s chances. If not, Concacaf’s bid strengthens.
– **Early FIFA Decision:** Selecting the 2038 host well in advance would allow Mexico and partners to prepare the necessary infrastructure for a larger tournament.

Mexico could leverage existing venues beyond those used in 2026, such as the Olímpico Universitario, Cuauhtémoc, Jalisco, and Universitario de Nuevo León stadiums—or their future replacements. Additionally, even if Canada doesn’t participate as a host, neighboring countries like Honduras, Costa Rica, or El Salvador might be invited to host individual matches, similar to the 2030 plan involving Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay.

For Mexico’s diverse and globally connected community—especially migrants and immigrants who follow football passionately—this prospect offers more than just sport. It represents an opportunity to showcase Mexico’s cultural richness, infrastructure, and commitment to inclusive, large-scale events that bring people together across borders.

As the 2026 World Cup unfolds, keep an eye on how these dynamics evolve. The dream of hosting again in 2038 might be closer than it seems.